據全球天然氣新聞倫敦報道，國際能源署(IEA)在日前發表的一份最新報告中指出，非洲將成為全球天然氣市場的主要生產、消費和出口地區，非洲的天然氣產量在未來20年里將增加一倍多。

根據IEA的《2019年非洲能源展望》報告中的調查結果，到2040年，天然氣在非洲能源結構中的比例預計將從目前的5%上升至25%左右。

IEA表示，由于近幾年來莫桑比克、坦桑尼亞、埃及、塞內加爾、毛里塔尼亞和南非等國的一系列重大天然氣發現，非洲大陸天然氣的未來可能會有所不同。2011年至2018年，這些國家的天然氣儲量已占全球天然氣總儲量的40%以上。

報告說，由于非洲將見證其人口的大幅增長以及其經濟在未來幾十年里將激增的快速工業化，這些發展很可能與非洲推動工業增長和其對可靠電力供應的需求相吻合。

未來20年，隨著天然氣成為主要油氣生產商更優先考慮的項目，非洲的石油產量將趨于平穩。到2040年，非洲的石油日產量將從2018年的840萬桶下降到820萬桶，而天然氣產量將從去年的2400億立方英尺增至2040年的3170億立方英尺。報告稱，莫桑比克、坦桑尼亞和埃及將成為非洲未來天然氣產量增加的主要驅動力。

但報告補充稱，由于非洲天然氣市場規模通常較小，而且人們擔心負擔能力，因此，發展天然氣基礎設施對非洲大陸來說將是一個重大挑戰。

IEA表示，由于天然氣市場即將出現供過于求的情況，這在很大程度上將取決于天然氣供應的價格、分銷網絡的發展、基礎設施的融資以及替代污染燃料的政策力度。

非洲在全球石油和天然氣市場對“滿足現代高效能源日益增長需求的重要性”將日益增加。

由于汽車數量增加一倍以及對作為烹飪燃料的液化石油氣(LPG)需求的增加，從現在到2040年，非洲大陸的石油需求平均每天將增加310萬桶。

IEA報告稱，非洲到2040年的平均石油日需求量將達到700萬桶，比去年日增310萬桶。

IEA補充稱，這一增幅高于中國的預期增長，僅次于印度的預期增長。

在天然氣方面，非洲在此期間將成為全球天然氣需求增長的第3大來源，這說明非洲的重要性不僅在于產量，而且在于消費量。

非洲的天然氣需求量將從2018年的1580億立方米增至2040年的3170億立方米。

然而，IEA的報告對非洲的石油和天然氣生產商發出警告，稱由于非洲發展模式的變化，高度依賴碳氫化合物收入的國家正面臨越來越大的壓力。

報告稱：“不斷變化的全球能源動態意味著資源所有者不能想當然地認為他們的石油資源將能轉化為未來可靠的收入。”

李峻 編譯自 全球天然氣新聞

原文如下：

Gas will hold the key to Africa's energy future: IEA

Africa will emerge as a major player in natural gas markets as a producer, consumer and exporter with gas output poised to more than double in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency said in a new report Friday.

The share of gas in the energy mix in Africa is projected to rise to around 25% by 2040 from 5% now, according to findings from IEA's Africa Energy Outlook 2019.

IEA said the future for gas in the continent could look different due to a series of major discoveries in recent years -- Mozambique and Tanzania, Egypt, Senegal and Mauritania and South Africa, which collectively accounted for over 40% of global gas discoveries between 2011 and 2018.

"These developments could fit well with Africa's push for industrial growth and its need for reliable electricity supply," the report said, as Africa will observe a huge rise in its population and the rapid industrialization of its economies, which will surge in the coming decades.

Oil production will plateau in the next two decades, as gas becomes a bigger priority for the key oil and gas producers.

Oil output will reach 8.2 million b/d by 2040 compared with 8.4 million b/d in 2018 while gas production will surge to 317 Bcm in 2040 from 240 Bcm last year. Mozambique, Tanzania and Egypt will be the main drivers of gas production, according to the report.

But developing gas infrastructure will be a major challenge because of "typically small market sizes and concerns about affordability,"the report added.

With an oversupply looming on the gas market, "much will depend on the price at which gas becomes available along with the development of distribution networks, the financing available for infrastructure and the strength of policy efforts to displace polluting fuels," the IEAsaid.

Africa's importance in the global oil and gas markets will increase to the "growing appetite for modern and efficient energy sources."

Oil demand in the continent will grow by 3.1 million b/d between now and 2040 due to the doubling of the car fleet along with increased demand for LPG as a cooking fuel.

The report said African oil demand in 2040 would average 7 million b/d from 3.9 million b/d last year.

This is higher than the projected growth in China and second only to that of India, IEA added.

On the gas side, Africa will become the third-largest source of global gas demand growth over the same period, outlining its importance not as a produce but also has a consumer.

Gas demand would increase to 317 Bcm in 2040 from 158 Bcm in 2018.

The report, however, sounded a note of caution to Africa's oil and gas producers that due to the changing development models in Africa,countries that are highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues are coming under increasing pressure.

"Changing global energy dynamics mean that resource-holders cannot assume that their oil resources will translate into reliable future revenues," it said.