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2009盤點:太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)十大事件

2009-12-24 17:14:56 PV Society

1.太陽能電池組件價格如坐“過山車”。2009年,連續(xù)5年保持攀升的太陽能電池組件價格突然出現(xiàn)了大幅下跌,平均價格從2008年的$3.25跌至$1.90,到2009年底,甚至出現(xiàn)了$1.40/Wp的低價,但是,這一有利的價格受益于規(guī)模較大的企業(yè),其他企業(yè)仍然承受著巨大的購買壓力。

2.令人困惑的光伏發(fā)電安裝量。2009年初,根據(jù)市場需求,全球的光伏發(fā)電安裝量約有2 gigawatts庫存,全年銷售量約為4.8-4.9 gigawatts,較往年下降了11%-12%,而安裝量卻超出銷售量約1-2 gigawatts,接近6 gigawatts。

3.09年后,薄膜技術(shù)將成為一項成熟的技術(shù)。2009年,CdTe的制造商First Solar始終位列各專業(yè)榜單第一位,成為技術(shù)銷售領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)航者,該技術(shù)的銷售占09年所有銷售總額的25%,這是有史以來的第一次,創(chuàng)造了一項嶄新的記錄。

4.2009年, 隨著美國在太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)繼續(xù)保持領(lǐng)先地位,加利福尼亞領(lǐng)軍其他各州實行了一系列重要舉措,如通過了AB32條款,淘汰AB920中凈超額罰款條款,AB920鼓勵開發(fā)更強大的系統(tǒng)使用者,而不是小型住宅和商業(yè)系統(tǒng)。

5.德國再次拯救了太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)。經(jīng)歷了年初的緩慢起步,德國的技術(shù)銷售在2009年中旬復(fù)蘇,這與選舉后的新政府提出的稅收改革休戚相關(guān)。

6.2009年夏天,加拿大安大略省通過了《環(huán)保能源法》,根據(jù)《環(huán)保能源法》,安大略省將實行《上網(wǎng)電價法》, 并要求至少60%的安裝系統(tǒng)達到合格標準,其中包括家用安裝系統(tǒng),如此,安大略省至少在短期內(nèi)可以提供一個強大的市場,同時刺激國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)。

7.日本建成無需補貼的可持續(xù)市場,并聲稱將在11月實行《上網(wǎng)電價法》。

8.BP Solar關(guān)閉了位于澳大利亞和西班牙的模塊組裝廠,將模塊組裝集中在美國進行。

9.原材料供應(yīng)商MEMC越過電池組件制造商,直接收購了美國的系統(tǒng)集成商和PPA模式的先驅(qū)SunEdison。

10.在美國,越來越多的州開始實行《上網(wǎng)電價法》,雖然其程序與歐洲模式不同,仍然為開拓美國的太陽能光伏市場奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。


Yes, it is time for another boring Top 10 list. Subjective though these lists are, and almost always omitting someone’s favorite item, it’s tradition as the old tired year fades and the new hopeful year emerges to note what stood out as important, and what will continue to influence us in the new year. It’s a tough job, frankly, for the year 2009 in solar — a Top 20 would leave out some crucial events. But, since you have got to draw the line somewhere … here is a starter Top 10 list for 2009. By all means, write in with a few of your own.

1. The year in which buying modules and cells became an extreme sport. After watching technology prices (cell and module) climb and keep on climbing globally during the 2004 to 2008 boom … 2009 saw a crash in pricing (welcome to installers, system integrators, investors and distributors, though not to manufacturers) to as low as $1.40/Wp for larger buyers at the end of the year, from an average of $3.25 for this buying category in 2008. 2009’s average selling price to the first point of sale: $1.90. (This average is for the buyers in large quantities, though, at one time or another every buyer enjoyed extreme buying power in 2009.)

2. The year of confused counting. Globally, 2009 started with ~2 gigawatts in inventory, mostly on the demand side of the market. With sales (to the first point of sale) down 11% to 12% (much better than originally anticipated), installations in 2009 will actually outpace sales of technology to be 1 to 2 gigawatts higher — though this should not be a surprise. 2009 sales to the first point of sale ~4.8 to 4.9 gigawatts, with installations close to 6 gigawatts.

3. After this year, thin films should no longer be referred to as an emerging technology. First Solar, a manufacturer of CdTe technology, will be the top shipper of technology to the first point of sale in 2009 — the first time a thin film manufacturer has been number one on any Top 10 list - and, thin film sales will be close to 25% in 2009 of total, another record.

4. California continuing to lead in state solar activism, along with continuing as the strongest U.S. market for solar did a number of crucial things in 2009: Assembly Bill 32 passed (a feed in tariff for systems <3-MWp) and even more important, eliminated the net excess penalty with Assembly Bill 920 … now utilities must give system owners the choice of rolling over net excess or being paid for it. AB 920 should end under-sizing of residential and small commercial systems in California and encourage stronger system ownership. On top of this, by executive order, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger increased California’s RPS requirement to 33% by 2020.

5. And Germany saves the solar world again. After a slow start, Germany recovered at mid-year and consumed 58% of all technology sold — causing concern to its new conservative government along with calls for an immediate change in the tariff. Will it change … and by how much … stay tuned.

6. Another cold, cloudy climate takes a leadership position. Ontario, Canada passed its Green Energy and Green Economy act with a generous FiT and requirements that 60% of eligible installations include domestic content. Ontario, at least for the near term, is likely to offer a strong market, along with stimulating domestic production.

7. A leader returns. Japan, which has already developed a sustainable market without subsidies, announced and started a feed in tariff in November.

8. BP Solar (which through several incarnations has long been an industry leader and numbering among the Top 10 manufacturers for many years) closed its facilities in Australia and Spain, along with shuttering module assembly in the U.S.

9. Raw material supplier MEMC vertically integrated by leaping over cell and module manufacturing to acquire U.S. based system integrator (or, energy service provider) and PPA model pioneer SunEdison.

10. In the category of it’s a start, more U.S. states — including Vermont — got into the feed in tariff act. Though these programs are dissimilar to the EU FiT model, they pave the way to an expanded market for solar in the U.S.

 




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標簽:太陽能 光伏 多晶硅 大事件